"GW": The black market for cigarettes is back in business. Profits are in the millions, and the risk is minimal

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Illegal cigarette production in Poland is once again becoming a lucrative business. Gangs are making millions, while the grey zone is returning to levels from a decade ago. Legal sales are falling, prices are rising, and the state is counting losses in the hundreds of millions of złoty, reports "Gazeta Wyborcza".

Organized crime groups are increasingly eager to return to illegal cigarette production. The risk is lower than in the case of drugs, and the earnings are huge. As reported by “Gazeta Wyborcza”, only one of these groups caused losses to the state budget of almost PLN 340 million . In January of this year, the Central Bureau of Investigation of Police and the National Revenue Administration detained five people, including the group’s leader.

The action was the result of the dismantling of an illegal factory in the Malbork district. On site, officers secured a modern line for the production and packaging of cigarettes . And this is just the tip of the iceberg - in 2023, 29 similar factories were liquidated, and in 2024 alone, 31 .

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- Gangs - here no random person has a chance to get a similar job, because they are immediately reported to the police - in a month they earn PLN 1 million without any problem - reports "GW".

Experts warn that the illegal tobacco market is growing rapidly. The grey zone, measured, among other things, by analysis of abandoned cigarette packages, reached 6.6% of the market in Q4 2024 – almost twice as much as a year earlier . In 2023, it was only 3.6%.

Industry representatives fear that if this trend continues, the share of illegal cigarettes could exceed 10 percent by the end of 2025.

- Cigarettes without excise duty are produced in the country, but are also smuggled into Poland – we read in "GW".

In the first five months of 2025, sales of legal tobacco products fell sharply. The largest decline was recorded in the rolling tobacco segment – by as much as 15.79% . Heated tobacco sold less by 11.26% , and classic cigarettes by over 7% , or 1.55 billion pieces less than in the same period a year earlier.

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The main reason is rising prices.

- A pack of cigarettes, which recently cost 16-18 PLN in a store, now costs around 20 PLN. And in 2027, after the next, already planned excise tax increases, it will be around 26 PLN - writes "Wyborcza".

In the face of the growing grey zone, the European Union is working on solutions that could limit smuggling and illegal production. One idea is to standardize cigarette prices in all EU countries . Such a move could limit the profitability of illegal import or smuggling of products from countries with lower excise taxes.

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